November 20, 2009
For Leah...
(apologies to those who now have to re-vote... puberty was misspelled... the irony was too much...)
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The Story That Won't Die
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Who Says Gossip Doesn't Pay?
When writers, particularly on the web, are accused of quid pro quo on ad sales, I don't like it... unless there seems to be a clear correlation. After all, having an ad sales division is quite unusual for websites that aren't under major corporate ownership and everyone needs to eat.
But when the first and only mention of Epix on your blog is unsubstantiated gossip claiming to know of fear in the heart of the direct competition of one of the sources that both constantly feeds you scoop and is one of the corporations partnered in Epix... and then the ads show up shortly thereafter... especially when most studios won't buy ads on your site with a 10 foot pole... hmmm...
Of course, we have ads on MCN for The Hurt Locker and we are promoting a Hurt Locker screening coming up Monday... but the ads have been up a lot longer than its been since we booked the film. Is that the same thing?
Truth is, we sell all of our awards ads in advance of content rolling out. And I don't think we have ever had ads sold or withdrawn over editorial content over these last seven years. I don't think anyone has even mentioned it as a threat or a joke.
But y'all can judge for yourselves.
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Not Sure Why, But...
I found this list, sent by the publicity team at Disney, made me smile. There is something about acknowledging the silliness of taking massive marketing efforts to social networking, though no studio feels they can be on top of things without doing it these days.
And I'm sure someone over there will think I am making fun of them by running this in a blog entry, but actually, having this kind of backstage info from studios makes the lives of those covering them easier. Some tools we use, some we do not. But occasional reminders about how many arms there are out there are very helpful. It's a smart choice.
And here is their list of Facebook pages
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November 19, 2009
20 Weeks To Oscar - 17 Weeks To Go
The Drip, Drip, Drip
The main variation in the 2009/10 Oscar season that keeps getting discussed is the change to 10 nominees.
And it's not insignificant.
But as the Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times."
As the Academy made this change, the economy of the film business started to bottom out. (Sadly, I don't think we've quite reached bottom yet, though many businesses have started 12-step.)
The Dependents went from being seven strong (as MGM is still officially a major, according to its membership in MPAA) to three divisions really in business (as opposed to being a placeholder for loose end projects and Home Entertainment libraries).
The True Indies continue to be in the game, though there is a real question of what Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company will look like when next year's season rolls around and Summit hasn't yet shown itself to be more than the sum of its vampires. Overture, Magnolia, Freestyle, Roadside Attractions, IFC, Apparition, and Oscilliscope (in order of 2009 domestic box office grosses) all continue to show interest in the season and an inability to get a hold of the voting imaginations of the Academy ... at least in the top categories.
Media noise - amplified by a combination of ad budgets being slashed thus making publicity more important again, a wave of new online businesses trying to sell themselves and their ads, and old media flailing about, trying to get attention, also in fear of their own demise - is more relentless and less thoughtful than ever.
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Screen It 2k+9
I don't want to start reporting every DVD that hits the porch as though it is news, but with WB, Focus, Sony, Fox Searchlight, Sony Classics, and Magnolia landing with Academy members so far, it is interesting, I think, that WB decided not to ship The Hangover, though there will be Globes push. And even with the big DVD release party, no Star Trek for Oscar so far either.
I'm not sure why Searchlight hasn't pulled the trigger on Crazy Heart, a movie that will play better on TV... not coincidentally made for TV.
There will be plenty more DVDs on the way...
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BYOB Hump-a-vampire-Day
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November 18, 2009
The Princess, The Frog & The Color
I won't offer any critical position on The Princess & The Frog. I was not embargoed, but the truth is, there is so much moving around at Disney these days, I am going to assume the conservative position and remain silent, looking towards the next set of relationships.
In any case...
What I do want to say is that the film is remarkable free of race as an issue once you get past the first 20 minutes or so. As Disney told everyone, the characters are black, white, and mostly, cajun, whether good, bad or somewhere in between.
The lightening bug that some worried about is one of the strongest characters in the film and doesn't identify black or white. The horn-playing alligator,a completely positive character, does play black... and unlike the characters who seemed black in The Jungle Book, is voiced by a black actor.
And Keith David, as the voodoo dude, gives - and I guess I am breaking my own rule a little here - a magnificent vocal performance, both speaking and singing. His character is not driven by race, but by greed.... a vice shared by all races.
Anyway, it really hit me about half way through that issues of race - including the prince in the film seeming more South American than black - just were not on the plate in this film, no matter what the setting. The fact that we are dealing mostly with animals through most of the film helps. A frog is green, not black or white.
I saw it at a NAACP screening... and it occurred to me that while race didn't play much of a role in the film as I saw it, for this mostly black audience, it must have been truly wonderful to see a film based around a black heroine and other black characters whose motivations are human and not just ethnic.
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The Doc Shortlist
A very strong list... heavy on good deeds with a few titles about show biz thrown in for entertainment value.
Of course, the first thing many of us wonder about is who got left out... and so... docs that have been released, had some real heat, and did not make the cut...
Capitalism: A Love Story
Anvil: The Story of Anvil
The September Issue
Tyson
It Might Get Loud
We Live in Public
Crude
The Yes Men Fix the World
Collapse
It is possible that a couple of these were not qualified or were disqualified. (Anvil may have been last year's qualifier) But after We Live In Public went through the process of actually getting dispensation from The Academy for a webmaster webcast, we know that political positioning does not always take in this very odd system of nomination.
Every Little Step, The Cove, and Valentino: The Last Emperor would have to be considered the frontrunners now, though I would be keeping an eye out for Garbage Dreams, and The Beaches of Agnes coming up from behind.
Of course, the way things work at The Academy, any number of those 5 titles could miss the final nominations list.
(You can meet the filmmaker behind Garbage Dreams in this DP/30... and the Every Little Step guys are here...)
ADD 4:20p - It seems there is going to be a lot of whining, screaming, and general complaining about this list. I would guess that less than 10% of the whiners have seen all the movies and that less than 20% have seen 10 of the 15.
That said, much as I personally care for some of the left out titles, the only one that strikes me as truly offensive in its absence is Tyson, a movie that does such a mighty job of getting through that history and a truly unique interview with the man, showing skills far more complex than the split-screen shenanigans. It is worthy in the way Errol Morris' The Fog of War was.
But there is not a single title on that list that urges me to wonder how "that piece of crap" made the list. Some are better than others, but even on the weaker ones, it is pretty clear why a committee would find them so compelling.
And frankly, the guts to leave Michael Moore off the list for the first time since they idiotically snubbed Roger & Me, aside from the dubious removal of Fahrenheit 9/11 from consideration, is kinda a winning notion. He made a weak movie. Happens. And he didn't get a free pass for being America's best-loved doc filmmaking character. He will recover. He's a very smart and capable man.
The September Issue was very overrated, a shadow of the Valentino doc. I'm not 100% sure Collapse was qualified, but it is also a chat doc based on an little known guy. Loud & Yes Men are not really Academy speed. Crude is- can't believe I am actually typing this - last year's issue. And Public might have been too public for the committee, perhaps hurt politically by the special treatment it was given. Or maybe they just didn't like it.
In any case, not as shocking a list as I think some are saying. Not the greatest year ever for docs. The system is still a bit screwy. But overall... pretty good.
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DP/30 - The Road x2
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November 17, 2009
DP/30 Sneak Peek - Anna Kendrick on The Twilight Series
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DP/30 - John Woo, dir Red Cliff
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I Heart Pie Charts!!!
I am not a big believer in internet surveying. I have had many experiences in which I know the survey is factually incorrect, others that make no sense in perspective.
And the chart below, from Nielsen, is pretty iffy... to the degree that they misname Lisa Schwartzbaum "Lisa Schwartzman." Oy. But one clear thing does seem clear. When any single "answer" dominates a survey of any size this clearly, that dominant answer bears attention.
After years of literal silence, Ebert's voice is as loud as ever.
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Poll du Jour - Twilight/New Moon
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DP/30 - The Messenger
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November 16, 2009
Kenny Ober Dies At 52
The thing that none of the obits I have read seem to recall is that the Ober-hosted MTV's Remote Control was a real melting pot for NY-based comedy talent at a time when a lot of rising stars were coming up. Adam Sandler and Denis Leary turned up on the show often. Ben Stiller was floating around those hallways. MTV was just trying out the idea of series, the network still dominated by music videos, so there was all kinds of experimentation.
The show was unwatchable as a game show. Kari Wuhrer was, pre-implants, the girl every straight geeky guy in Manhattan wanted to run into at a Duane-Reade and talk into bed... the Olivia Munn of her generation. Colin Quinn played the lazy stooge, but was one of the smartest (and laziest) comics in NY.
But the thing that was great was watching some of the best and silliest NY comics stream from comedy club stages to the show as guest categories.
Ken Ober was sometimes a good guy... sometimes a very angry guy. In some ways, he preceded Jon Stewart, though Ober never had the quality of writing - by the writers or himself - that Stewart has. But he was the sane center of the madness. And that show was madness.
It's sad and scary for those of us who are over 40 to see someone go so "young." Fame is fleeting. Life too. Those were good days... at least until everyone started feeling like they had something to lose and acting like the angry children they often were. Long time ago...
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BYOB For A Fresh Week Of Vampires
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When News Corp Met Google
So, Rupert Murdoch seems intent on leading the charge against invasive aggregation. Google is, amazingly, the most constant target.
Here are three interesting perspective pieces on the current state of the situation...
Doing the Math on News Corp.’s Threatened Google Block by 
(also known as "The Artist Formerly Known As The Bagger")
Ad Age offers, "Why News Corp. and Murdoch Won't Quit Google"
And this self-explainingly titled piece, "Josh Cohen Of Google News On Paywalls, Partnerships & Working With Publishers" from searchengineland.
My most clear view of all this is that Wall Street Journal is a unique proposition. The NY Post is not. The NY Times already found out the painful truth... though many, many people want to read their Op-Ed section, very, very few people will pay to read any one person... and that offering included unlimited search through the history of NYT, which is why I paid for it.
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Twittered By An Academy Member This Morning
where the hell are the screeners???!!!
This is one of the major events of this year's awards season. Magnolia and Sony Classics have shipped. Everyone else... not yet.
And the same is pretty much true of the ad campaigns. Expect a big, fresh wave of ads this week and next. But studios large and small have been playing it very close to the fiscal vest this season so far.
The same is true with the last four big awards films to be seen. Nine junketed this last weekend because they had it planned months ago and they have a big cast of very busy actors. But everyone who saw the film - the soundtrack of which is still two weeks away from being done - including the HFPA, signed agreements not to review or every mention the film on social networking sites.
Avatar, no. Invictus, no. The Lovely Bones, no.
As usual, the one high-profile movie that is being long-lead screened, Sherlock Holmes, is suddenly getting odd awards buzz from the long-lead monkeys. There is even some new buzz around It's Complicated.
Why hasn't every member of The Academy had The Hurt Locker and District 9 and A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds in their DVD players for weeks now? Not to mention long shots like Star Trek and The Hangover and The Informant!?
The reason is money, it seems... not so much as in no one spending as in studios hedging on their awards spending through a very scary corporate summer and preparing to lock-n-load just before Thanksgiving... some just before Christmas.
All of this is... well... interesting... if hard to analyze. Of the big new movies, you can be sure that Academy members will be drawn to Invictus and Avatar and Nine in a big way. The Lovely Bones may find it more challenging to get older viewers to the theaters (screening rooms and public) and could be very SAG-reliant to get it rolling.
But it may be that the long shots get longer as, literally, dozens of DVDs suddenly pile up on the doorstep next week.
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Question du Jour
Okay... this is a real question. Please don't take it to be ironic or disparaging. But...
Beyond being a good, great or crap movie, the group responding most powerfully to Precious seems to be gay, white men. Why do we think that's the case? (Or perhaps you disagree with the premise of the question.)
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DP/30 - Alessandro Nivola, Turning Green
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November 15, 2009
DP/30 - Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
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Weekend Estimates by Klady - 11/15/2012
(NOTE: "Weee" is a typo... the film is Richard Kelly's The Box.
So a few stats from the folk at Sony:
With $160 million worldwide, 2012 is the biggest international opening of all-time for a non-sequel and the #5 international opening of all-time.
1) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, 236m
2) Spider-Man, 3 231m
3 )Pirates of Caribbean:At World’s End, 216m
4) Harry Potter and the Order of Phoenix, 193m
5) 2012, $160m
6) Da Vinci Code, 155m
In North America, the film earned $23.6 million on Friday, was up 5% Saturday to $24.8 million and the studio expects another $16.6 million on Sunday. 2012 is playing at 3,404 locations for a per location average of $19,095.
AND they add about This Is It... he film has now grossed $222.6 million ($155.4 million overseas and $67.2 million domestic)
As for myself...
You have to be lucky about which Roland Emmerich film you get. I can't give the studios too much credit. Like Bruckheimer, Emmerich is pretty self-contained. You could get $270m ww of 10,000 BC (WB) or you could get what seems to be his third $500 million ww grossser. I think the real key is that before you buy, you make sure that your marketing team can start doing the ads, even before the movie is made, and that the ads will involve mayhem of epic proportions.
Roland Emmerich's The Ten Commandments, here we come!!!!
I'm not completely kidding. Just imagine the plagues.
Again, the opening is similar to The Day After Tomorrow... a little better... TDAT did $151 million in that first weekend. The question now is the speed of deterioration in a faster theatrical universe than 5 years ago... plus the advantage of the last film opening on a holiday weekend. Conversely, if the word of mouth isn't too bad - and someone I trust told me last night that for this film of film, they think it actually works... it could get the big benefit ofa Thanksgiving holiday with a few strong titles, but no competing mega-visual flick. Sony's offering Cinemascore - which I never really trust, as it is skewed to people who rushed to see the film/genre - of moviegoers under 18 giving it an A and overall, getting a B+. TDAT's $550m is doable. Could be slightly higher with some good word of mouth... somewhat lower without. but people don't go to go Roland Emmerich movies to think.
A Christmas Carol is reporting a 26% drop. The film is running about 10% behind Elf, though that surprise smash's drop was just 15% in its second weekend.
Precious is the second best limited release story of 2009 (so far), after Paranormal Activity. Lionsgate has to be hoping that the end results will look more like PA than like the #2 limited release movie so far this year, (500) Days of Summer. And it seems likely to lean that way. (500) went to 206 screens in weekend three and totaled $6.8m at the end of the weekend. Paranormal went to 160 in W3 and totaled at $9.1m.
The legitimate question on a movie like Precious is how big the audience that will respond to reviews and the content, as sold, really is. The hope is that momentum from the limited release and those reviews and media hype-rah will create the phenomenology that will push it well past the base. But we won't know until it happens. We do know that Lionsgate has done a terrific job maximizing what they have so far. As much as Oprah is beloved, her history with movies is not that she is a box office guarantee at all. It's more than that.
The dangerous thing about going out and having this success this early is that is the film runs out of gas after Thanksgiving, you're still a full month from Oscar ballots going out. I would be truly shocked if the film isn't nominated, but you want to strike while the iron is hot and there are a lot of studios out the who are going to try to make their big awards push in December.
The Messenger has a nice start for Oscilloscope. Really good little movie. Good on them.
Universal/Focus tried to publicity the veddy Brit Pirate Radio to an opening here, using Phil Hoffman as the front man. It's a tough kind of comedy to sell anyway. When you are reduced to pushing a near-cameo by January Jones as your #2 selling point, you are in marketing trouble. (And if you want to see the end of hope for a greater career for Ms Jones, watch SNL from this weekend. Oy.)
The Fantastic Mr Fox number is meaningless. This is how they open Wes movies. It's a little better opening than Tenenbaums, which was Wes's best domestic grosser with $53 million. I assume that Fox will be opening Fox wider than any Wes Anderson movie has ever been (1105), looking for families. Maybe not. I don't understand tiptoeing on a movie like this. It is an oddball for an animated film. But it's not the is, it's the sell.
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November 14, 2009
Friday Estimates by Klady - Oh Those Mayans
The Day After Tomorrow numbers for Emmerich. Not shocking. Not even interesting. living testament to marketing and people's willingness to rush out to see the world destroyed by CG.
A Christmas Carol's hold is, like many Fri-to-Fri numbers, a little exaggerated, this time for the better. The film played a lot stronger on Saturday that on hysteria Friday (the day the film was tagged, unfairly, as a disappointment forever), so a 37% hold, which is great these days, really won't be clear until Saturday's drop is known... late tonight. the film will likely pass the second weekend number on The Santa Clause 2, which went on to to $140m domestic. #4 Christmas-themed movie of all-time is well within range.
Precious is heading to a $35k per number on 174 screens. Still very impressive. The film seems to be using a variation of No Country... a little faster... a little hotter...
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November 13, 2009
Really?
Seriously.
This is part of the plan for The HuffPo to be taken seriously as a journalistic institution?
OMFG.
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